Block Inc. (Formerly Square): Lessons in Valuation and Growth Potential

PUBLISHED Mar 17, 2025, 2:17:59 PM        SHARE

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Block Inc., the company once known as Square, is at the forefront of innovation in financial services and commerce. With a suite of intriguing applications, Block has demonstrated remarkable growth and remains a compelling investment option for those who value disciplined valuation. In this analysis, we delve into the company's offerings, historical performance, and future prospects, as highlighted by Chuck Carnaval’s Fast Graphs two-minute drill.


Block’s Versatile Ecosystem

Block operates five unique applications that cater to diverse needs:

  1. Square: Provides accessible commerce and financial services for sellers.
  2. Cash App: Offers a seamless way to spend, send, and store money.
  3. Afterpay: Revolutionizes how customers manage spending by enabling "buy now, pay later" options.
  4. TIDAL: A music platform empowering artists to succeed as entrepreneurs.
  5. Bitkey and Proto: Supporting Bitcoin adoption with self-custody wallets and a range of mining products and services.

This ecosystem reflects Block's commitment to empowering individuals and businesses through cutting-edge technology.


Historical Performance: A Tale of Valuation

Examining Block’s historical Fast Graph highlights several key insights:

  • Earnings Growth: The company has grown earnings at an impressive 28.51% annually, as represented by the orange line on the Fast Graph.
  • Irrational Exuberance: In 2021, Block’s valuation skyrocketed, with its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple exceeding 250x. This unsustainable growth led to a collapse in stock price as earnings dipped in 2022.
  • Current Opportunity: With a P/E ratio of 15.66, Block now trades at a much more attractive valuation.

Future Prospects: Growth at a Reasonable Price

Block is positioned for significant growth:

  • Projected Growth: Analyst estimates forecast annualized earnings growth of 28.51%, supported by over 30 analysts tracking the stock.
  • Potential Returns: If these growth rates and modest valuation expansions materialize, investors could achieve over 50% annualized returns through 2027.

This combination of growth and a reasonable price makes Block a quintessential GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) investment, aligning with Peter Lynch’s principle: P/E equals growth rate.


Valuation Lessons: Why Timing Matters

Block’s journey offers valuable lessons for investors:

  1. Beware of Overvaluation: The excessive multiples seen in 2021 led to a sharp correction.
  2. Seize Reasonable Valuation: Today’s pricing reflects a much fairer valuation, providing long-term investors with an opportunity to capitalize on future growth.

Conclusion: An Intriguing Growth Opportunity Block Inc. has evolved beyond its roots as Square, offering a wide array of applications that drive innovation and empower users. With strong fundamentals, promising earnings growth, and an attractive valuation, the company presents a compelling case for disciplined, long-term investors. As always, thorough research and valuation analysis remain critical to maximizing investment success.

https://youtu.be/99alMYm4DG0?si=93DGQR9BvGn3XxgX

XYZ, Buy

Block Inc.
Return: 6.70%

XYZ, Buy

Return: 6.70%


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