MicroStrategy: A Long-Term Play on Bitcoin and Unprecedented Growth

PUBLISHED Mar 17, 2025, 12:55:09 PM        SHARE

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MicroStrategy has long been synonymous with Bitcoin investment, offering investors an indirect yet amplified exposure to the cryptocurrency. While the stock's recent volatility has caused jitters among some holders, the fundamentals remain solid. For long-term investors, MicroStrategy's current price levels present what could be a unique buying opportunity. Here's why.

Bitcoin Exposure: The Backbone of MicroStrategy's Strategy

MicroStrategy's core strategy revolves around Bitcoin. The company holds a significant BTC treasury—467,000 Bitcoins as of December 2024—and continues to add to its position. While Bitcoin's market perception remains that of a risk-on asset, seasoned investors see it as pristine collateral. Despite market fluctuations, MicroStrategy's association with Bitcoin has made it one of the most compelling investment stories of the decade.

MicroStrategy Outperforms Bitcoin

Over the past 4.5 years, MicroStrategy has consistently outperformed Bitcoin, delivering a 93% annualized return compared to Bitcoin's 46% annualized return over the same period. For context, Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq nearly 3X during this timeframe, further highlighting MicroStrategy's position as one of the highest-performing assets in the 2020s.

Price-to-NAV Premium: A Unique Metric

MicroStrategy's stock trades at a premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV). The current premium is approximately 50%, a low figure compared to historical norms for tech stocks operating in transformative industries. This premium reflects not just MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings but also its operational expertise and innovative approach, including its use of convertible debt to amplify returns.

Key Metrics to Consider:

  • Current price-to-NAV: 1.52 (with recent lows at 1.46).
  • Price-to-NAV premium over Bitcoin: $21 billion.
  • Guided Bitcoin yield for 2025: 15%, equivalent to a $6 billion BTC gain.

Despite this premium, the stock is trading at an effective price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 3.58 when adjusted for Bitcoin gains, far below the 30x PE typical for leading tech stocks.

Conviction in Bitcoin: A Prerequisite

MicroStrategy's performance is inherently tied to Bitcoin. Long-term holders should assess their conviction in Bitcoin before investing further. Those uneasy with Bitcoin's short-term volatility may need to reconsider their allocation. For those confident in Bitcoin's long-term value, MicroStrategy remains an exceptional opportunity.

What If Bitcoin Yield Surpasses Expectations?

If Bitcoin achieves a 60% yield in 2025, similar to its performance in 2024, MicroStrategy could add an additional 280,000 Bitcoins, translating to $24 billion in gains. This scenario would reduce the adjusted price-to-NAV premium to just 0.89x, further underscoring the stock's potential undervaluation.

Final Thoughts

MicroStrategy is more than just a proxy for Bitcoin—it’s a tech company operating at the heart of the digital revolution. Its innovative use of financial instruments and deep exposure to Bitcoin make it one of the most intriguing investment opportunities in today's market. As always, zoom out during volatile periods and focus on the long-term potential.

https://youtu.be/XiXPSQlScE4?si=h1z47Q5u8SwkljII

**POSITION UPDATE**

MSTR, Buy

Microstrategy Inc.
Return: -7.84%

MSTR, Buy

Return: -7.84%


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