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Market Musing 8-1-2022, How does this Recessionary Bear Market Compare to others?

PUBLISHED Aug 1, 2022, 6:13:15 PM        SHARE

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  • Market/Industry/Bitcoin Technicals
  • Stock, ETF, Crypto Alpha Boost Case Studies

SPX survey

Seabrook Discussion 7pm Wednesday

New Age Traders Noon Thursday

  1. Moderate Volatility: VIX > 22. SPX overall is bearish. However, we have enjoyed a two week upside breakout. How high can this rally go in a Recessionary Bear Market? Please watch Slim’s video below on the history of price movement in these types of markets. For now, I am using 4211 gravity line which is also a 50% retracement for an upside target. Earnings Season is wrapping up, and the Fed Raised 75 basis points with more hikes to come. The new expected SPX range for this week: 4211 top and 4050 bottom.

SPX chart

Michael Burry Tweet

Sell Put Credit and Call Credit Spreads. Buy Put Calendars, Ghetto Spreads and Butterflies on overbought Stocks and ETFs.

  1. US Dollar and 10 Year Interest Rate:

    The US Dollar dropped from 109 to 105.4 in the last two weeks. This matches with the Dead Cat Bounced we experienced in the US markets. A weakening Dollar helps US Markets and Commodities. The 10Y Note Interest has stabilized around 2.64% while 30 year fixed rate mortgages are around 5.5%. The Yield curve has inverted with 2, 5 & 7 year yields higher than the 10 year. In the past, 2 negative GDP Quarters signaled a recession, but apparently this time is different?!?!? Long Term the US Dollar decline is still intact with Fiscal and Monetary stimulus flooding the world with US Dollars.

DXY chart

  1. Crypto Currency: Bitcoin range bound between $24,000 to $18,500. Cryptos too are interest rate sensitive. Long Term and Institutional Investors are using this DIP to Dollar Cost Average into both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Corporations, Countries, and Institutional investors are accumulating large Bitcoin positions. Please continue to Dollar Cost Average into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto winter will last for another 11 months, as we wait for the next Bitcoin Halvening in 23 months.

    https://support.tastyworks.com/support/solutions/articles/43000612831-available-cryptocurrencies

BTC chart

  1. Tasty Works Algo Trading System: James at Quiet Foundation

Alpha Boost ideas, sign up https://info.quietfoundation.com/alphaboost

https://issuu.com/luckbox/docs/2111-luckbox-site/56 Alph Boost Article

If you are new to options or this blog sounds like gibberish, please tryout Tasty Trade’s New 2020 Education. Includes 40 Videos, Testing and you get a certificate of completion at the end of the course.

https://tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/beginner-options-course

  1. TRADE Log: VIX > 22

  2. Jade Lizards - AMD, ZM

  3. Put Broken Wing Butterflies - TSLA*, GOOGL

  4. Put and Call Credit Spreads - IWM, KWEB,TBT, UNG, EWZ

  5. Put Calendars - FFIE, NKE, XHB*, PLTR, DWAC*, EWJ, EWG, BA*

  6. Upside Ghetto Spreads - AMZN*, TSLA*, GOOGL, AMD*, SAVA, RBLX, ARKG, GOEV

  7. Downside Ghetto Spreads - SPY, QQQ

  8. Collars - AAPL*, JNJ*, F

  9. Weekly Butterflies - SPX

  10. Covered Calls - PDBC

  11. SuperBull - LRCX*

Trade Mechanics

  1. Video and Articles

SPECIAL REPORT: US Stock Market, Bear Market Comps 08/01/22

https://youtu.be/m-scbvT8Jpg?t=143

Bear Market Stats

https://theotrade.com/inflation-rate-hikes-recession-and-a-rippin-rally/

https://www.tastytrade.com/shows/market-measures/episodes/new-lookback-tutorial-07-15-2022



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