Not a Cheap Market

PUBLISHED Dec 24, 2024, 1:23:00 AM        SHARE

img
imgTom Hamilton

12/23/24 - OK, I’ve been ‘meaning to’ write this for over a week now, and folks will inevitably say “sure, because the markets down now!”. Fair enough, but taking a look at the chart, the “over priced market” goes back awhile. That’s not to say that it “must’ go down, it’s just a heads up that we are likely closer to a correction (down), than we are to a rip-roaring rally.

Another way to look at this is just how narrow the market up trend has been; think Technology. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 Index are valued at 50% more that the other 490 stocks. And . . those 10 are concentrated in Technology of one form or another (I’m lumping Crypto along with Tech).

My ‘line in the sand’ is around a close below 580.91 (SPY), which was the low price last Friday. That level also goes back to a consolidation pattern in mid-October of this year. I doubt if we’re at the end of this Bull market, but one could make the case that we’re due for a significant correction of say 10% or more. All it would take would be some bad news; economic or geo-political in nature. And (IMHO) the incoming administration is not exactly staffing up with experienced personnel that can make a good decision quickly. (hope I’m wrong)

In the mean time, be watchful and careful. For those who celebrate it, Merry Christmas and for other Happy HanukKah. ………………. Tom ……………….



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