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Market Musing 7-18-2022, Dollar dropping, Earning Season is here

PUBLISHED Jul 21, 2022, 1:59:44 PM        SHARE

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  1. High Volatility: VIX > 24. SPX overall is bearish, however we have been range bound for the last 3 weeks. The US Markets are rising Monday morning on lower Dollars and better expectations for earnings this quarter. Fed Rate Hike is targeting 100 basis points in July. The new expected SPX range for this week: 3951 top and 3776 bottom.

SPX Chart

Michael Burry Tweet

Sell Put Credit and Call Credit Spreads. Buy Put Calendars, Ghetto Spreads and Butterflies on overbought Stocks and ETFs.

  1. US Dollar and 10 Year Interest Rate:

    The US Dollar is pulling back from 109.294 a 20 year high. A weakening Dollar helps US Markets and Commodities this week. The 10Y Note Interest has stabilized around 3% while 30 year fixed rate mortgages are around 6%. The Yield curve has inverted with 2, 5 & 7 year yields higher than the 10 year. Fednow is forecasting a negative 2% GDP for 2Q/2022. This is a sign of the Stagflation (ie Recession plus Inflation). Long Term the US Dollar decline is still intact with Fiscal and Monetary stimulus flooding the world with US Dollars.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Atlanta Fed GDP estimate

  1. Crypto Currency: Bitcoin range bound between $22,500 to $18,500. Can Bitcoin finally break out of this range? Cryptos too are interest rate sensitive. Long Term and Institutional Investors are using this DIP to Dollar Cost Average into both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Watch for other Corporations, Countries, and Institutional investors to accumulate large Bitcoin positions. Please continue to Dollar Cost Average into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto winter will last for another 12 -15 months, as we wait for the next Bitcoin Halvening in 24 months.

    https://support.tastyworks.com/support/solutions/articles/43000612831-available-cryptocurrencies

BTC chart

Atlanta Fed GDP estimate

  1. Tasty Works Algo Trading System: James at Quiet Foundation

Alpha Boost ideas, sign up https://info.quietfoundation.com/alphaboost

https://issuu.com/luckbox/docs/2111-luckbox-site/56 Alph Boost Article

If you are new to options or this blog sounds like gibberish, please tryout Tasty Trade’s New 2020 Education. Includes 40 Videos, Testing and you get a certificate of completion at the end of the course.

https://tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/beginner-options-course

  1. TRADE Log: VIX > 24
  1. Jade Lizards - AMD, ZM

  2. Put Broken Wing Butterflies - TSLA, GOOGL

  3. Put and Call Credit Spreads - IWM, KWEB,TBT*, UNG

  4. Put Calendars - FFIE, NKE*, XHB, PLTR, DWAC, EWJ, EWG*, BA

  5. Upside Ghetto Spreads - AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, SAVA, RBLX, ARKG, GOEV

  6. Downside Ghetto Spreads - SPY, QQQ, EWG

  7. Collars - AAPL*, JNJ, F

  8. Weekly Butterflies - SPX 3860 - 3870 (-2) - 3880

  9. Covered Calls - KO, PDBC

  1. Video and Articles

Ray Dalio - The 5 Key Signs of an Empire in Decline

https://youtu.be/J5Y2eg_ZyXA

https://theotrade.com/markets-bounce-while-economic-issues-continue-to-mount/

InvestAnswers: Recession Alarm Sounds - On-Chain Technical Analysis

https://youtu.be/3UDleJMA88I



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